The Gamble - John Sides; Lynn Vavreck

The Gamble
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Autor: John Sides; Lynn Vavreck

 Wydawnictwo: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691156880
EAN:
Format: ...
Oprawa: twarda
Stron: 352
Data wydania: 2013-10-01
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"Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest - and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election - with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis. Instead, they draw on extensive quantitative data about the economy, public opinion, news coverage, and political advertising to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. Combining this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, they provide the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written - and the only book of its kind. Which mattered more - Barack Obama's midsummer ad blitz or the election year's economic growth? How many voters actually changed their minds - and was it ever enough to sway the outcome? The Gamble answers important questions like these by looking at the interplay between the candidates' strategic choices - the ads, speeches, rallies, and debates - and the chance circumstances of the election, especially the economy. In the Republican primary, the book shows, the electioneering and the media's restless attention did matter, producing a string of frontrunners. But when Obama and Mitt Romney finally squared off in the general election, there were few real game-changers. The candidates' billion-dollar campaigns were important but largely cancelled each other out, opening the way for Obama to do what incumbents usually do when running amid even modest economic growth: win. An election book unlike any other, The Gamble is a must-read for political junkies, analysts, journalists, consultants, and academics. Honorable Mention for the 2013 PROSE Award in Government Politics, Association of American Publishers "Sides and Vavreck offer a detailed, quantified description of the battlefield--an effort to provide political science insight in real time."--David Lauter, Los Angeles Times/Jacket Copy blog "In The Gamble, two super-smart thinkers lay out moneyball politics for anyone to understand."--Gregg Easterbrook, ESPN.com "Good, sane tome on how the fundamentals matter."--Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution "A work of real originality and depth. In places it extends existing work and does so with care and sophistication. In other places it breaks new ground, especially with analyses of the interplay between the media and popular references and perceptions."--Richard Johnston, Forum "Sides and Vavreck's book is an overdue corrective. They weren't embedded in a campaign or buddies with top strategists. They don't usher you inside the room. But they have something that campaign reporters lack: data. Lots and lots and lots of it... Underpinning their real-time information are decades of supporting political-science data and theory. The result is that while most election narratives track the inputs of the campaign, Sides and Vavreck track the outputs... There's no better book for understanding it--and the political structures that will continue shaping U.S. elections in 2016 and beyond--than The Gamble. For campaign journalism, the book is a game-changer."--Ezra Klein, Bloomberg View "The Gamble reveals how few 'breaking' developments in presidential campaigns (the rules are different for your local freeholder race, with its scant media coverage) can actually move the numbers. Pry out the secrets, read the data, and you can ignore the rest of the clattering B.S. machine that is the modern presidential election."--David Weigel, Slate "With the most comprehensive and demanding analytics of a wide array of data, Sides and Vavreck cut through many of the myths of the 2012 campaign... Reading The Gamble, I'm pulled in two directions. There is an excitement that comes with the clarity of very smart and skilled professionals working through

Książka "The Gamble"
John Sides; Lynn Vavreck